Natural disasters and electoral outcomes
نویسندگان
چکیده
Natural disasters are good examples of catastrophic events that may affect vote decisions. In this study, we analyze how the occurrence earthquakes changes voters' behavior at municipal elections and which channels drive change, focusing in particular on role media exposure. We exploit data from 13,338 electoral cycles where incumbents seek reelection between 1993 2015 Italy. apply a difference-in-difference strategy with time cities fixed effect to probability share using three different control groups: universe municipalities, sub-sample neighboring municipalities identified by one-to-one nearest-neighbor propensity score matching procedure. find destructive significantly increases incumbent mayors’ chance being reelected their share. argue result is driven mayor advantage offering recovery disaster damages combined higher visibility aftermath disaster. Thus, mediatic relevance earthquake bias voters towards incumbent.
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ژورنال
عنوان ژورنال: European Journal of Political Economy
سال: 2021
ISSN: ['0176-2680', '1873-5703']
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ejpoleco.2020.101983